Decision path models for patient-specific modeling of patient outcomes

Ferreira A, Cooper GF, Visweswaran S.  Decision path models for patient-specific modeling of patient outcomes.  In: Proceedings of the Annual Symposium of the American Medical Informatics Association (2013) 413-21. PMID: 24551347. PMCID: PMC3900188

Patient-specific models are constructed to take advantage of the particular features of the patient case of interest compared to commonly used population-wide models that are constructed to perform well on average on all cases. We introduce two patient-specific algorithms that are based on the decision tree paradigm. These algorithms construct a decision path specific for each patient of interest compared to a single population-wide decision tree with many paths that is applicable to all patients of interest that are constructed by standard algorithms. We applied the patient-specific algorithms to predict five different outcomes in clinical datasets. Compared to the populationwide CART decision tree the patient-specific decision path models had superior performance on area under the ROC curve (AUC) and had comparable performance on balanced accuracy. Our results provide support for patientspecific algorithms being a promising approach for predicting clinical outcomes.

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Ferreira A, Cooper GF, Visweswaran S.
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