Issue a boil-water advisory or wait for definitive information? A decision analysis.
Wagner MM, Wallstrom GL, Onisko A. Issue a boil-water advisory or wait for definitive information? A decision analysis. AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2005:774-778. PubMed PMID: 16779145.
Study the decision to issue a boil-water advisory in response to a spike in sales of diarrhea remedies or wait 72 hours for the results of definitive testing of water and people.
In the base-case analysis, the optimal decision is test-and-wait. If the cost of issuing a boil-water advisory is less than 13.92 cents per person per day, the optimal decision is to issue the boil-water advisory immediately.
Decisions based on surveillance data that are suggestive but not conclusive about the existence of a disease outbreak can be modeled.