The emerging science of very early detection of disease outbreaks
Wagner MM, Tsui FC, Espino JU, Dato VM, Sittig DF, Caruana RA, McGinnis LF, Deerfield DW, Druzdzel MJ, Fridsma DB. The emerging science of very early detection of disease outbreaks. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2001 Nov;7(6):51-9. PMID: 11710168
A surge of development of new public health surveillance systems designed to provide more timely detection of outbreaks suggests that public health has a new requirement: extreme timeliness of detection. The authors review previous work relevant to measuring timeliness and to defining timeliness requirements. Using signal detection theory and decision theory, the authors identify strategies to improve timeliness of detection and position ongoing system development within that framework.